Thai Airways International posted a net loss of 418 million baht for the third quarter, its first quarterly loss this year, as a 59.8% jump in average fuel prices outran a 12.9% rise in revenue. The Bangkok-listed carrier earned a net profit of 4,421 million baht in the same quarter of 2025, according to the Thaiger.

The result, released on Thursday, shows how quickly fuel can erase the gains Thailand's flag carrier made in the first half, when it was still reporting profits. For investors in Asian airlines, it is a clear reading of how much of this year's oil spike carriers were able to pass on through fares, and how much they absorbed.

Thai Airways revenue grows, but costs grow faster

Revenue excluding one-time items rose 12.9% to 50,128 million baht in the July to September quarter, from 44,398 million baht a year earlier, according to Kaohoon International. Expenses on the same basis climbed 29.1% to 46,286 million baht, mainly because of jet fuel.

That squeezed operating profit before finance costs, excluding one-time items, down 55.1% to 3,842 million baht, for a margin of 7.7%. Finance costs rose by 225 million baht to 3,362 million baht. The airline also booked net one-time expenses of 1,126 million baht, which it attributed mainly to flood damage and foreign exchange losses, partly offset by gains on derivatives.

The Thaiger said the airline linked the higher fuel bill to unrest in the Middle East that flared again from early July. The paper also noted that business outlets citing the Stock Exchange of Thailand filing put the loss at 431.6 million baht, a different line from the 418 million baht figure the airline highlighted. CGS International Securities (Thailand) put the reported loss at 432 million baht and said it included 641 million baht of expenses tied to flooding in September.

The carrier said it had managed its exposure "through partial fuel hedging," Kaohoon International reported.

Higher fares, fewer seats filled

Thai Airways raised its fares to offset fuel. Average passenger revenue rose to 2.88 baht per passenger-kilometre from 2.61 baht, helped by higher fuel surcharges, and passenger and excess baggage revenue rose 10.7% to 39,498 million baht, the Thaiger said. The airline had raised ticket prices by 10% to 15% in March.

Demand held up at those prices, but only just. The carrier flew 3.97 million passengers in the quarter, and its cabin factor slipped to 76.5% from 76.8%. Cost per available seat-kilometre rose 31% to 2.46 baht, 6% above CGSI's estimate, which the broker blamed on higher staffing costs, including salary increases deferred since April, and heavier maintenance.

Over the first nine months, the numbers point the same way. Revenue excluding one-time items rose 6.3% to 149,779 million baht, while expenses rose 19.3% to 128,498 million baht. Net profit fell to 11,226 million baht from 26,394 million baht. Passengers carried dropped 3.1% to 11.81 million, capacity measured in available seat-kilometres fell 1.8% and traffic fell 4.2%, leaving the nine-month cabin factor at 77.1% against 79.1% a year earlier.

The weaker traffic matches a wider softness in Thai travel. Foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand fell over the first 10 months of the year, and the Thaiger said other Thai carriers have cut flights since the March fare increases.

Balance sheet cushion and what analysts expect

The airline still has a large cash buffer. Cash and other current financial assets stood at 135,487 million baht on Sept. 30, up 11,927 million baht from the end of 2025, according to Kaohoon International. Total assets rose 16.8% to 355,165 million baht, total liabilities rose 19.5% to 272,590 million baht and shareholders' equity increased by 6,663 million baht to 82,575 million baht. The fleet had 91 aircraft at the end of September.

Management said advance bookings for the year-end travel season were satisfactory.

Analysts at CGSI looked past the headline loss. Core net profit of 694 million baht fell 87% from a year earlier and 42% from the second quarter, but beat the Bloomberg consensus by 38%, the broker said, while landing at about a quarter of its own forecast. EBITDA on its measure fell 35% to 8.8 billion baht, a margin of 18.1% against the 22.6% it had projected.

CGSI kept an Add rating and a target price of 8 baht, against a share price it cited of 5.15 baht. It expects double-digit growth in passenger yields in the fourth quarter and said jet fuel had eased to $147 a barrel by Nov. 11 from about $170 in September and October, which should help margins. The broker valued the stock at a 20% discount to regional peers, citing possible share supply after a lock-up expired on Aug. 4, and flagged management uncertainty as a risk. The board suspended Chai Eamsiri on Oct. 2, and CGSI expects a permanent chief executive by the first quarter of 2027.

The next marker is the company's earnings call on Nov. 23, after which CGSI said it would review its estimates.