Asia's Currencies Close October Mixed as Rupee Gains About 1% and Yuan Hits 4-Year High
With the Fed and the Bank of Japan both on hold, central bank defenses, export dollars and oil decided which currencies won the month.
With the Fed and the Bank of Japan both on hold, central bank defenses, export dollars and oil decided which currencies won the month.
September inflation of 4.3% pushed hike odds to 88%, but a softer jobs report and a hike already largely priced in have kept the Aussie from breaking higher.
A softer dollar, a stable sovereign outlook and higher export forecasts lifted the baht off its weakest levels since July, but the central bank is warning about jobs and spending at home.
Export booms have lifted the won and yuan to multi-year highs, while costly oil keeps the rupiah near a record low and the rupee under pressure.
The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% and the Fed at 3.75% to 4% last week. That spread pays investors to borrow yen, until the yen jumps.
Tokyo has stayed out of the market since its record summer operation, leaving 27 trillion yen of yen buying this year and reserves of US$1.18 trillion.
The yen rallied in Tokyo while stocks and Treasury yields fell, then weakened again in London and New York and hit a one-month low against the euro.
China's central bank will lock up about US$24 billion from Nov. 15 and set three weaker daily fixings in a row, cooling a rally of about 5% this year.
The rupee touched a two-week high as the dollar slid after the U.S. midterms, but strategists still expect oil and outflows to drag it lower.
A record US$61.46 billion September current account surplus failed to lift the currency as chip shares tumbled after the U.S. midterm elections.
An 8-1 vote, with one member pushing for a half-point move, gave sterling only a brief lift as traders had already priced the increase.